CRE Is About To Be A ‘Real Mess’ And A $270B Problem For The Banks

This year, around $270B of commercial real estate loans are set to expire, of which $80B are for office buildings. This has caused concern due to the low office occupancy rates, increasing the risk of foreclosure. Multiple high-profile defaults have already occurred, such as Brookfield Asset Management defaulting on $750M of debt in Los Angeles and Pimco failing to pay its loan for an 846K SF office property in North Dallas. The potential consequences of widespread CRE distress are being discussed by the White House, Treasury Department and Federal Reserve. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, believes that nonbank lenders will play a big part in real estate lending, though this could be a better situation for the economy as a whole.

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